The Philadelphia 76ers have added four key players to a 28-win team. What should we expect from the team for assists and turnovers next year?
In previous installments in this series we have broken down what the statistical expectations should be for the Philadelphia 76ers when it comes to minutes per game, Scoring output and rebounds.
Today let’s talk about assists and turnovers. These two statistics tend to go hand in hand for a team as a fairly objective measure of competence. Typically expressed in a ratio, the idea ratio is 2:1 for assists to turnovers. If you want to evaluate a classic point guards effectiveness that is typically the first place to look. But in the modern NBA that team ratio is also a good indicator of overall offensive efficiency.
Here are the assists to turnover rankings from 2017
Rk▲ | Team | AST | TOV | Assists per Turnover |
| 1 | Golden State Warriors* | 30.4 | 14.8 | 2.05 |
| 2 | Charlotte Hornets | 23.1 | 11.5 | 2.01 |
| 3 | Boston Celtics* | 25.2 | 13.3 | 1.89 |
| 4 | San Antonio Spurs* | 23.8 | 13.4 | 1.78 |
| 5 | Detroit Pistons | 21.1 | 11.9 | 1.77 |
| 6 | New Orleans Pelicans | 22.8 | 12.9 | 1.77 |
| 7 | Dallas Mavericks | 20.8 | 11.9 | 1.75 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Clippers* | 22.5 | 13 | 1.73 |
| 9 | Milwaukee Bucks* | 24.2 | 14 | 1.73 |
| 10 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 23.7 | 14 | 1.69 |
| 11 | Denver Nuggets | 25.3 | 15 | 1.69 |
| 12 | Washington Wizards* | 23.9 | 14.2 | 1.68 |
| 13 | Orlando Magic | 22.2 | 13.3 | 1.67 |
| 14 | Houston Rockets* | 25.2 | 15.1 | 1.67 |
| 15 | Chicago Bulls* | 22.6 | 13.6 | 1.66 |
| 16 | Cleveland Cavaliers* | 22.7 | 13.7 | 1.66 |
| 17 | Memphis Grizzlies* | 21.3 | 12.9 | 1.65 |
| 18 | Indiana Pacers* | 22.5 | 13.8 | 1.63 |
| 19 | Miami Heat | 21.2 | 13.4 | 1.58 |
| 20 | New York Knicks | 21.8 | 13.9 | 1.57 |
| 21 | Sacramento Kings | 22.5 | 14.6 | 1.54 |
| 22 | Portland Trail Blazers* | 21.1 | 13.7 | 1.54 |
| 23 | Atlanta Hawks* | 23.6 | 15.8 | 1.49 |
| 24 | Utah Jazz* | 20.1 | 13.6 | 1.48 |
| 25 | Toronto Raptors* | 18.5 | 12.7 | 1.46 |
| 26 | Philadelphia 76ers | 23.8 | 16.7 | 1.43 |
| 27 | Oklahoma City Thunder* | 21 | 15 | 1.40 |
| 28 | Los Angeles Lakers | 20.9 | 15.2 | 1.38 |
| 29 | Brooklyn Nets | 21.4 | 16.5 | 1.30 |
| 30 | Phoenix Suns | 19.6 | 15.4 | 1.27 |
| League Average | 22.6 | 14 | 1.61 |
Looking from this view you can pretty clearly see which teams are successful at ball movement and taking care of the ball. Teams that rank low on assists and high on turnovers tend to be young teams built around isolation. The Phoenix Suns rank low in both indicating an over reliance on young playmakers to find their own shot.
Teams that are low on turnovers and assists tend to be older teams playing a ball stopping style but experienced enough to limit mistakes.
Related Story: Projecting the Philadelphia 76ers Scoring potential
Where did the Philadelphia 76ers Rank?
At 1.43 assists per turnover, the Philadelphia 76ers ranked 26th in the league last season. This had many reasons. On raw assists they ranked eighth in the league at 23.8 per game. The achilles heal was turnovers. This is primarily due to being a young team learning how to play together, roster turnover and lack of cohesion and Joel Embiid’s insane turnover % even for a man his size.
TJ.. McConnell lead the team in assist to turnover ratio as well as raw assists last season. T.J. averaged 6.6 assist per game to just two turnovers per game in 26 minutes. That is a 3.3:1 Assist to Turnover Ratio. This is elite floor general type numbers from T.J.
Moving Forward
I wish I could tell you that this is another area where the Philadelphia 76ers seem primed to vault into the top 10 but the numbers simply do not bear that out. McConnell is projected to play a much smaller role off the bench so that will hurt the overall ratio for the team.
The team has absolutely added some extremely solid passers and facilitators but when broken down to numbers they teams overall assist-to-turnover ratio may actually get worse before it gets better.
| Player | Avg Mins | Ast/36 | EST AST | TOV/36 | EST TOV | AST/TO |
| Markelle Fultz | 25 | 5.9 | 4.10 | 3.2 | 2.22 | 1.84 |
| JJ Redick | 28 | 1.8 | 1.40 | 1.6 | 1.24 | 1.13 |
| Robert Covington | 32 | 1.7 | 1.51 | 2.2 | 1.96 | 0.77 |
| Ben Simmons | 28 | 5.2 | 4.04 | 3.6 | 2.80 | 1.44 |
| Joel Embiid | 28 | 3 | 2.33 | 5.4 | 4.20 | 0.56 |
| Jerryd Bayless | 23 | 2.9 | 1.85 | 1.7 | 1.09 | 1.71 |
| Justin Anderson | 10 | 2.4 | 0.67 | 1.8 | 0.50 | 1.33 |
| Dario Saric | 16 | 3.1 | 1.38 | 3.1 | 1.38 | 1.00 |
| Richaun Holmes | 15 | 1.8 | 0.75 | 1.7 | 0.71 | 1.06 |
| McConnell | 8 | 9 | 2.00 | 2.7 | 0.60 | 3.33 |
| Stauskas | 6 | 3.1 | 0.52 | 2.1 | 0.35 | 1.48 |
| Luwawu | 12 | 2.3 | 0.77 | 2.2 | 0.73 | 1.05 |
| Amir Johnson | 9 | 3.1 | 0.78 | 1.7 | 0.43 | 1.82 |
| 22.09 | 18.20 | 1.21 |
A couple of things to note on this.
- T.J. McConnell may play his way into a larger role
- Joel Embiid reduced need to carry the offense may result in less turnovers on his part.
- Natural maturation and experience may improve this.
As you can see this is not a rosy picture. We will likely be wow’ed by many highlight plays from Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz. But youth and inexperience will result in costly turnovers and runs from the other team. We have seen our team go on tilt before and its tempting to believe those dog days are over, but the stats so far do not support that.
Next: Rebounding projections for 2017-18
1.2:1 Assist to Turnover would place the Philadelphia 76ers among the worst teams in the league in this category. This is not an indictment of the talent on the team, but rather a harbinger of the dangers of youth.