The Philadelphia 76ers land in a very talented 2018 NBA Draft with more picks than open positions. Can the team solve that draft dilemma?
Did you ever know this moment would arrive? Despite all the gym videos, the lofty hopes, the overwhelming optimism from the articles here at the Sixer Sense, the fans of the Philadelphia 76ers had to offset hope with the cold reality of letdown. Throughout 2017, the team flashed post season, intermingled with NBA Draft position, as the goal. The team seemed to get things into focus when 2018 arrived. Improving from a 17-19 record, the team clicked on their way to the March 10, 2018 record of 36-30. So far, the team is playing at an 19-11 pace.
But here the team is, chugging hard at the last lap and aiming for the ever-elusive playoff spot. A team with a solid compliment of starters, veterans and developing players. And on that roster are two players, Furkan Korkmaz and Markelle Fultz, who saw next to nothing this season. Those same two players could easily play major roles for the team in 2018-2019.
Roster issues 2018 off season
The team has some roster issues to sort out this off-season, to be certain. Of the 15 players this year, the team has expiring contracts on one starter: J.J. Redick. The team also loses three key bench players to expiring contracts as well: Amir Johnson, Marco Belinelli, and Ersan Ilyasova. So lose four, reclaim two players from injury. So far so good.
Or is it? Behind those expiring contracts are nothing but .. thin air. Neither Markelle Fultz, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, nor Furkan Korkmaz has shown anyone anything close to being ready to assume a starting role on the team in 2018-2019. And of that group, the same can be said of Belinelli’s backup role. The team currently has no proven backup for either Joel Embiid nor Dario Saric nor even Robert Covington after this season. But the team has rights to center Anzejcs Pasecniks, power forward Jonah Bolden, and small forward Mathias Lessort . Let’s consider them each primary backups for the team next season.
2018 NBA Draft six-pack picks
The only enigma yet to sort out is that 2018 NBA Draft situation for the Sixers. There is a solid crop of young men, each of whom are eager to realize their NBA dream. And the Philadelphia 76ers hold the fate of 10 percent of that draft in their control. It’s exciting. It’s delicious. It boggles the imagination. But holy cow, what the heck can this organization do with six more rookies?
The challenge for each and every NBA team drafting prospects is finding not only the right athletic talent, but the right fit for the team. As teams improve, their “needs” narrow, complicating the process even further. Teams at the post-season tier often draft a player within their physical statistical tolerances, and then coach the player into their intended role. Right now, these Philadelphia 76ers are transitioning to a team drafting day one starters, into a team drafting for future starters. In the 2018 NBA Draft, this team has six such prospects to mold into their future roles.
How active will 76ers be in free agency?
If it were only six, that might be workable. But with the delaying impact of two injured first year players, that number jumps to eight. Roll in three draft-and-stash players in the Euroleague, the number is up to 11. 11 new or nearly-new-to-the-NBA players is a number that is simply too large fo this team to absorb at once.
Free agency is an expensive option. Like grocery shopping at the corner market. There are no true bargains, only convenvience. So let’s start off by expecting this team follows suit in waving good-bye to expiring contract vets, warmly welcoming three new overseas additions to the team, and perhaps re-signing J.J. Redick (or free agent equivalent) to another contract, where does that leave the team? But free agency delivers veterans. And we know Bryan Colangelo favors maturity on his team. So that is always a first stop in any Colangelo roster move projections.
The draft times they are a’ changing
At 15 players, same roster number this team is ending the season at. So where and how can this team pry open some roster spots? Or even more basically, should they? Well the fact is that the team likely should look to do so. Free agents should never be a primary way of stocking any professional sports team roster. The cost is higher, and the intrinsic value to the team is less.
The narrative for this Philadelphia 76ers team changes in the 2018-2019 conclusion. At the end of next season, contracts expire for Jerryd Bayless, Richaun Holmes, Justin Anderson, and T.J. McConnell. But the team cannot enter that 2019 NBA Draft looking to draft replacements for any or all of these players. Those replacements must be associated with the Philadelphia 76ers at the end of next season. To do so, they must arrive to the team via the 2018 NBA Draft from picks 11, 17, 37, 39, 48, 60.
2019 Draft leaner times
Entering that 2019 NBA Draft, the Philadelphia 76ers are likely looking at a late first round pick (their own), a late second round pick (their own) and an early second round pick from Sacramento. After years of multiple first round picks, the Philadelphia 76ers will be shopping frugally sooner than many fans would like. That is the life in the NBA where playoff teams reside. The playoff teams shop free agency because, let’s face it, they are one of the attractive teams in the NBA now. And with late draft picks, there is the risk that talent at the team’s needs may not exist among the young players.
And so, the team must leverage these more “game ready” moves which hit the salary cap harder, and move past the diminishing value of the NBA Draft to deliver players who contribute immediately. The bottom line? Philadelphia 76ers current front office must use the 2018 NBA Draft to bring in players to plug projected holes in two-three years. That’s something, to be perfectly honest, I’m not exactly convinced is the strong suit of President Bryan Colangelo. In fact, he has stated in the past that four draft picks are probably too many. So that’s our baseline – no more than four draft pick in 2018.
Faith Hope and Charity
It will take faith in the organization to believe they will do the right thing come that 2018 NBA Draft. We know that the 2017 NBA Draft picks did not all land in Philadelphia. Picks 39 and 46 were sold outright to the Los Angeles Clippers and the Milwaukee Bucks respectively. And while neither Jawun Evans nor Sterling Brown is starting for either team, both have already seen spot duty and despite being a year behind, and are having comparable seasons to that of Philadelphia 76ers Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot.
The Philadelphia 76ers, once the marquis gem of the NBA in terms of getting young players ready to play at the NBA level, has found it rough-going this season. Now that the team is entering a draft with the likely two firsts and six overall picks scenario, the team is already developing a developing dilemma with a logjam of progress for both Markelle Fultz and Furkan Korkmaz. The question now is, how many players will the team take on next year?
No more than four
In the past, Bryan Colangelo has drawn the line in the sand at four draft picks. And in 2017, he made good on that by selecting Markelle Fultz for the Philadelphia 76ers, drafting and stashing picks 25, 36, and 50, and selling picks 39 and 46 outright. That had the effective delay of redshirting three draft prospects for the team until the roster had sufficient open slots and the players had another year to mature. Since Bryan Colangelo has already advocated the NBA minimum age be set at 20, the draft-and-stash of selected players ensures they arrive at the right age range to the team.
So far, the team has been harvesting the picks sown by former team executive Sam Hinkie. But that crop begins to wane in the upcoming years. When that happens, the team will need to onboard players to fill out their roster via free agency . For now, the team has enough draft prospects in the 2018 pipeline to avoid NBA Free agency altogether. But for now, the draft is a place of hope for the Philadelphia 76ers fans to find one more piece to the NBA championship puzzle.
Package picks
Eleven players next year with little to no NBA experience. Two on the roster, three from the Euroleague, and six fresh off the draft. That won’t happen. So one way the Philadelphia 76ers front office can divert the number of incoming young players is to bundle picks to trade up in the NBA Draft. Per Tankathon.com,. the Philadelphia 76ers have more than enough ammo to trade anywhere on the draft board with a reciprocal team. But while that is the first scenario, it need not be the only one.
The team could combine picks and players to swap for another team’s players. The Philadelphia 76ers packaged Jahlil Okafor, Nik Stauskas, and a 2nd round pick with the Brooklyn Nets for power forward Trevor Booker. Subsequently, Booker was cut to make room for free agent Ersan Ilyasova. You can be the judge of who won that trade, but it’s an historic pattern by Colangelo and will likely be used again.
NBA partner needed
The team could also package picks to sell outright as they did in the 2017 NBA Draft. Two picks simply converted to cash consierations, and in that instant there was no further front office management needed whatsoever. It comes down to whether the Philadelphia 76ers can find a trade partner willing to place the Sixers in a desired position in that draft.
Of course, the Toronto Raptors, the Milwaukee Bucks, and the Miami Heat have no picks in the 2018 NBA Draft. Could either of those three teams be interested in landing a draft pick for the 2018 draft? If so, could they exchange a valuable package to the 76ers for a pick or picks? We know Bryan Colangelo sought short-duration contracts from either free agent signings or players he traded for. So that is another option.
Exchange for future picks
While we haven’t seen evidence of this, the Philadelphia 76ers should strongly consider converting today’s surplus into tomorrow’s talent. While the 2018 NBA Draft has likely six picks, the 2019 NBA Draft will have just one first round pick and two second round picks. That is a significant reduction for a team which had grown accustomed to the presence of multiple first and second round selections. But it’s more than just losing a cozy feel for the fans.
The team will begin to bump the ceiling of the NBA Salary Cap as the team improves. Good players get paid in the NBA. And as the Philadelphia 76ers improve, their players become good players. And good players get paid in the NBA. So the draft becomes the salary buoyancy factor many teams use to keep their 15 man roster within salary cap constraints. We had discussed this before, as we talked about how to best set up an NBA roster.
Great production vs. great value
Competing forces drive NBA personnel decisions. Young players often bring great value to an NBA team. The right veterans bring great production. To fans and online NBA GM simulators, the great production wins out. But that is not how the NBA works. It takes an NBA prospect several years to fully develop their NBA skills. That’s why the Philadelphia 76ers, whose core is currently Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid, and Dario Saric, have such future upside. They are getting better.
But it’s the same reason the team signed veteran free agents Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova on the fly. The Philadelphia 76ers bench needed stronger scoring, and those two players have helped upgrade the bench somewhat. Pushing current draft picks back to future drafts ensures that this team will have a steady stream of young value to aid the team’s salary cap management.
Draft and stash
Ah yes, the ole tried-and-true methods. So far, the draft pattern of the Philadelphia 76ers under Bryan Colangelo for any pick after the top draft selection is to draft an international player. All five draft picks retained by the Philadelphia have been the following international players:
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot 2016 NBA Draft 22
Furkan Korkmaz 2016 NBA Draft 24
Anzejcs Pasecniks 2017 NBA Draft 25
Jonah Bolden 2017 NBA Draft 36
Mathias Lessort 2017 NBA Draft 50
So the pattern is firmly entrenched. So what of the 2018 NBA Draft? Are there sufficient numbers of international players in this draft to fill six targets of the Philadelphia 76ers draft position? There very likely could be. Or even five targets if the team elects to draft and sign one player immediately to the 76ers roster.
Does draft and stash resolve the matter?
The two benefits for draft-and-stash methods align with the Philadelphia 76ers pattern and needs. The net effect is to redshirt younger players in a basketball environment where the Philadelphia 76ers organization can “set it and forget it” by retaining all NBA rights to that player. The second, and likely more critical value to the organization is the ability to now project when the team will onboard their international players to coincide with their own roster management.
Next: NBA Draft and Philadelphia 76ers impacted by Pac-12 reform
With three such players in the queue for 2018 roster spots, it makes sense for the team to employ this for up to five draft selelctions in the 2018 NBA Draft. And to ensure the players will sign overseas, the best option is to select international players. In the end, this is the most likely scenario. In the past, the Philadelphia 76ers crop of young talent converted immediately to NBA players, ready or not, here they come. Now the team has a saturated NBA roster, and the draft becomes the chess moves for two or more seasons in the future. As long as the team can pick the right player from the choices, the Sixers will continue to improve. But if the team truly only looks at international players, then domestic talent is already slipping past them. And that is an NBA Draft dilemma discussion for another time.