How the Philadelphia 76ers stack up against the Southeast Division

Miami Heat

Miami Heat Projected Starting Five:

• Goran Dragic
• Jimmy Butler
• Justise Winslow
• James Johnson
• Bam Adebayo
• Other Notable Players — Dion Waiters, Kelly Olynyk, Meyers Leonard, Tyler Herro, Derrick Jones Jr.

The Miami Heat head into the 2019-20 campaign with the newfound services of former Sixer Jimmy Butler.  Butler will add a new dimension to their offense that was sorely lacking last season, as Miami finished 26th in offensive rating, per NBA.com.  The Heat kept themselves afloat with their defense which finished seventh in the NBA. Replacing Josh Richardson with Butler should not move the needle too much on the defense, but there is some evidence that Butler’s regular season production is slipping on that end as he nears age 30.

The Heat also traded Hassan Whiteside to the Blazers and received Meyers Leonard in return, who could provide a little more spacing off the bench.  The Heat was not great at generating shots at the rim, and were equally mediocre at finishing around the basket when they got there. They did do a good job of generating corner threes, finishing in the 82nd percentile in that regard, per Cleaning the Glass.  Jimmy Butler will help in those areas, as his elite pick-and-roll ability should give the Heat additional looks up close, and open things up on other areas of the perimeter.

More from Sixers News

• 3 Sixers players who could help Team USA Basketball
• 76ers 2k24 ratings: 3 most underrated players on Philadelphia roster
• 76ers head coach Nick Nurse bares lofty plans for Paul Reed this season
• Grade the Trade: 76ers swap Tobias Harris for superstar PG in mock deal
• Breaking Down Bombshell Report on Sixers Star James Harden

It will be interesting to see who on the Sixers defends Butler for most of the game.  On the one hand, having Richardson guard the player he was traded for is a nice subplot, but it would also be fun to watch Ben Simmons guard his former teammate.  I have a feeling Simmons will ask for the assignment, and it might be better to have Richardson guard the smaller Dragic anyway. When engaged, Simmons is an elite defender.  There is no doubt he will be locked in and up to the task of chasing Jimmy Butler around the myriad of pick-and-rolls the Heat will likely run.

With Embiid’s former punching bag Hassan Whiteside now in Portland, JoJo will need to guard the bouncier Bam Adebayo.  Adebayo will not pull Embiid out of the paint, so he should be able to patrol the rim easily.

Horford will have to guard the likes of James Johnson, Kelly Olynyk, and occasionally Meyers Leonard, as the Heat will usually be running a smaller lineup with a floor spacing four man.  The Heat offense will improve with Butler’s creation, but the Sixers will be one of the best defenses in the league next season. If they are able to slow down the pick and roll game, the Heat will have a hard time getting open looks.

Defensively, the Heat did a great job keeping opponents away from the rim (80th percentile), but hemorrhaged corner threes all season (ninth percentile), per Cleaning the Glass.  When opponents did get to the rim the Heat contested it well, finishing in the 88th percentile in terms of opponents’ shooting percentage in that area. Their rim protection fell off without Whiteside on the court, as they finished in the 68th percentile in that area when using only lineups with him on the bench.  With Whiteside now in Portland, it will be up to Adebayo to keep up that solid rim protection.

The Sixers should look to attack the Heat in the post, where Embiid will have a size advantage for the entire game.  The Heat’s propensity for allowing corner threes will likely continue, so getting Embiid going in the post and forcing double teams could free Harris and Richardson for catch and shoot opportunities.  This is of course hinges on Embiid improving his passing away from double teams, and the Sixers players doing a better job of making themselves available when the double comes.

Simmons loves to play the Heat, and has seemed to circle the calendar for them ever since he led the team to 4-1 playoff series win in 2018.  That series featured a lot of physical play and numerous attempts by the Heat to intimidate the young Sixers, but Simmons was having none of it.  He should be even more amped to see this Heat team come up on the schedule with Jimmy Butler now donning the red and black.

Between an energetic Simmons and Embiid, and simple talent advantage, I’m going to go out a slight limb and predict a series sweep for the Sixers.  I will add the caveat that this assumes the Sixers are at full strength for every game against the Heat, which is not a given. If the teams meet in the playoffs, I’ll take the easy way out and say Sixers in five.

As I noted at the beginning of this piece, the Southeast Division is very possibly the weakest in the league.  The Heat will likely be better on offense, and their defense should still be solid with coach Erik Spoelstra at the helm, but I still only see them as a 5-6 seed at their absolute best.  It is very possible that the Magic edge them out for the top spot in the division.

This wraps up the breakdown of the Sixers’ Eastern Conference opponents.  As a whole, the Sixers stack up very well against their own conference. The Bucks will of course be the largest threat, but the rest of the East has a lot of question marks, and there seems to be clear advantages for the Sixers against every one.

One thing that stood out to me is how well the Sixers should be able to guard every team in the East well, especially thanks to the addition of Al Horford.  There will certainly be off nights defensively for the Sixers, that happens in season that spans 82 games, but the Sixers should be able to grab a top-two seed on the back of that strong defense as long as they stay healthy.

Be on the lookout as we will jump into the Western Conference in the next few days.