Philadelphia 76ers: Temper expectations for 2020-21

Change and unusual circumstances could limit the Philadelphia 76ers’ success.

The 2020 offseason has been a positive string of events for the Philadelphia 76ers. Doc Rivers and Daryl Morey have patched up a sinking ship, and the Sixers are now sailing much smoother waters. That said, too much excitement could set the fanbase up for disappointment. It’s wise to temper expectations.

Is Rivers a clear upgrade over Brett Brown at head coach? Yes. Will Morey’s reshaped roster — which has placed a premium on shooting around Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons — make for a more functional offense? Yes. Does the second unit feel much sturdier than it did two months ago? Certainly.

All that is true, and yet, it’s unwise to expect rapid and exponential growth from the Sixers. In fact, there’s a very real the 2020-21 season is chalked up to a learning experience, and not much more. The accelerated timeline and extraordinary circumstances place Philadelphia in an exceptionally difficult spot. Rivers touched on it in his media day session.

"“Taking a job during this year of COVID is brutal. I will just say that – it’s brutal – and (it’s compounded by) making the changes because we haven’t had a chance to be in the gym with our guys. We can’t even put in our stuff. And then we have like a week and a half and you’re in action… I’ll say this: we’re going to simplify things as much as possible. It clearly wouldn’t be what I would do if it was normal circumstances.” (h/t Tom Moore, Bucks County Courier Times)"

The Sixers are installing a new system and, on top of that, integrating two new starters and a backup center. Rivers will have only two weeks to put core sets in place and figure out his opening night rotation. He openly admitted he won’t know the starting five concretely until later in the season.

Embiid and Simmons should look more comfortable with a spaced-out floor, but simultaneously, they will be running plays they never have before. Embiid and Simmons have strikingly limited experience in the pick-and-roll, and Danny Green — who will almost certainly start — can’t even show up to camp until the Al Horford trade goes through a week from now.

There are too many moving parts to expect a coherent product on opening night. The Sixers will experiment, and Morey is bound to pull the trigger on more roster moves before the trade deadline and buyout market pass. Philadelphia has been in a constant state of change for years now, and while this year’s change has a vision and purpose behind it, it’s change nonetheless.

Also of note is Tyrese Maxey, who is one of the few capable guards in the second unit. He’s a rookie who, according to Rivers, will essentially meet his teammates when camp opens. He will then need to prove his mettle as a rotation player in a new system, with establish players who are equally unfamiliar with the system. It’s not ideal to rely on a rookie in such a condensed timeframe.

Then, unfortunately, one must also mention the inherent chaos and uncertainty of COVID. The recovery timeline for a sick player is 10-14 days. With a 72-game schedule and multiple games each week, a sick player — or, even worse, numerous sick players — could tank an entire season.

Mavs star Luka Doncic quipped that the teams with the fewest COVID cases will compete, and he’s not wrong. A lot of this comes down to luck and vigilance, and one cannot gloss over the broader health concerns surrounding this pandemic. Lives and families are at risk, and the NBA is taking a considerable leap of faith (or, more accurately, letting profit drive them) by allowing teams to play in their home markets.

A lot could go sideways fast, and the Sixers are undergoing more drastic change than Milwaukee, Miami, Toronto, Boston, and Brooklyn — their primary challengers in the East. A rapid ascent to the top is not impossible, but considering the circumstances, it’s wise to temper expectations.