Several unlikely things need to happen for the Philadelphia 76ers to pull off a James Harden trade that doesn’t include either of their star players.
In the real world, unless the Philadelphia 76ers are willing to include either Ben Simmons or Joel Embiid, it seems near to impossible that the franchise will be unable to trade for James Harden. While the Sixers have emerged as a favored destination for Harden, according to Adrian Wojnarowski and Tim MacMahon of ESPN, a deal seems unlikely.
The 76ers seem content to see where how their current roster performs and want to save their trade assets for a later part of this season. Which is smart, but things are getting ugly between the Houston Rockets and Harden rather quickly so things could change in a couple of weeks or in a month or two.
It would be wise for Philly to wait and see what happens with their roster, as well as the relationship between the Rockets and Harden. If things playout just right in the Sixers (albeit an unrealistically chance) then there is a small chance for them to pull off a Harden deal without including either of their current All-Stars.
What an ideal Harden trade looks like for the Sixers.
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The Rockets have made it clear what they want in return for the former MVP. A young cornerstone, young players, and/or picks. In order for the 76ers to pull off a deal like that, there are several things that need to occur in the early part of the season.
The first is that Tobias Harris needs to play like an All-Star. He was close to that production when he was on the Los Angeles Clippers when Doc Rivers was coaching that squad. Now both player and coach are with Philadelphia so there’s a chance for Harris to regain that form.
Harris will need to have a strong case for an All-Star selection, if not get to nod for the game if he’s going to be one of the centerpieces of a potential Harden deal. At the age of 28, Harris is in his prime, and he’d be a good player for the Rocket to help transition out of the Harden era if he reaches All-Star form. However, if he’s not playing at an All-Star level then this deal doesn’t even get discussed.
There are two other players that need to have breakout performances besides Harris for the Rockets to even consider trading Harden to Philly without Simmons or Embiid not included in a deal. Matisse Thybulle needs to play at an All-Defensive team level this year.
Coach Rivers spoke on his belief that Thybulle is already an All-Defensive team defender during his introductory press conference. If Thybulle has the season to prove that belief then having a young All-Defensive team wing on a rookie contract should be enticing for Houston. It would certainly help if Thybulle would become a consistent threat from deep as well.
The other player that needs to break out is Shake Milton. Milton has been getting high praise early in training camp and Rivers has spoken on wanting Milton to play with even more freedom than last year, per Noah Levick of NBCSPhilly.
As I have written in the past, if Milton becomes like Jamal Crawford and Lou Williams, who were sixth men that played for Rivers in the past, then he could be very dangerous as a scorer. If he plays near or at a Sixth Man of the Year level, then he becomes another player that would be valuable in the Rockets rebuild post Harden era.
An ideal trade for Harden from Philly’s perspective could look something like this.
The only way Houston even considers this if Harris plays at an All-Star level, Milton plays at a Sixth Man of the Year level, and Thybulle is an All-NBA defender early on this season. Plus three unprotected first round picks aren’t bad either. If just one of these things doesn’t occur, then a deal not including Simmons or Embiid doesn’t happen.
There’s only a small chance that the Rockets trade Harden to the Philadelphia 76ers without Philly having one of their two superstars included in the deal. The universe would have to perfectly align for that to happen and that just doesn’t seem probable at this point.