We’ve done our best to tamper hopes and expectations of Joel Embiid‘s first NBA season. But what about the possibilities that he is as good as the brochure? Let’s dare to dream together.
He was selected with the third pick of the 2014 NBA draft. A top prospect player on the mend, Joel Embiid found himself playing for the Philadelphia 76ers, an NBA team which was also on the mend. The 20 year old Cameroon center had suffered lower back strain and a broken foot in his one season of playing basketball with the Kansas University Jayhawks, and he was expected to be a full year in rehabilitation. But early on, the Philadelphia 76ers saw an aurora of elite in his infectious laughter, his playfulness, and the physicality of a young 20 year old 7′ 0″ 249 pound who had little formal training with the sport of his eventual profession, but whose instincts and aptitude for the fundamentals seem to align with his physical measurements.
In short, it was as though the young man was engineered to play basketball.
But from the moment of his selection, he was a man of above average needs in order to realize his potential. His body was not adequately trained in the sport of basketball, and his foot surgery was simply an unavoidable result of his tall stature starting and stopping at rates far in excess of the limits he was built to endure. The president and general manager of the Philadelphia 76ers, Sam Hinkie, recognized the special needs of his new franchise center and began to shape the organization to deliver on that promise. While head coach Brett Brown was called upon to train center Nerlens Noel to play the power forward position, Hinkie had already begun the year long recruitment of the world leader in the field of sports medicine and sports science, Dr. David T. Martin. It would be Martin’s task, once hired, to bring the best of both science and medicine to heal and train the young man.
Days before the 2015 NBA draft, the Philadelphia 76ers learned of the regression of Joel Embiid’s injured foot. The team had already committed to his start in the 2015-2016 season, and so the June news of the need for a second foot surgery derailed plans to move Noel to the four spot, and forced the team to revisit their own draft board. While luck did not favor the Sixers in the 2015 draft, no protected first round picks from either the Los Angeles Lakers, the Miami Heat, nor the Oklahoma City Thunder conveyed, the team was fortunate in that they fell to the three pick once more, and their projected selection, point guard Russell D’Angelo, instead went to the Los Angeles Lakers at number three. And so, with Karl Anthony Towns and Russell off the board, the Philadelphia 76ers picked the best player available, Duke center Jahlil Okafor, at number three.
Next: Okafor Outplays Offensively
Okafor Outplays Offensively
It was immediately viewed as a quick flip selection; a GM whose reputation was built from machine-gun-draft-day-dealings, Hinkie had just selected his third center in three consecutive years. That belief that Jahlil Okafor was selected for trade currency has never been shaken, and even to this day speculation of trading Jahlil Okafor is almost a given – as though the Sixers have already determined that must happen. But that was not the case in the 2015 draft. Without Embiid joining the active roster, and with the team having already shifted Noel’s focus to the power forward role in the 2015-2016 season, random luck prevailed and delivered Embiid’s replacement to the roster with no-one the wiser until months later.
And so, news of Embiid’s second needed surgery did become public eventually, and the team pressed forward with a roster minus Joel Embiid for the second year. Rebuilding paused and reset for one more year. If Jahlil Okafor was viewed simply as a “temporary patch” at the center position, I think he outplayed virtually every expectation. Not only did he bring a strong post presence to the Sixers, but he had an arsenal of moves to remain the team’s leading scorer despite being a rookie. In fact, his 7.0 rebounds per game is second only to teammate Noel’s 8.0 RPG. In his first NBA season, he has found an NBA basketball court to be a very friendly stage for his skills.
Had Okafor delivered at or below expectations, there is no doubt in my mind that the 2016 off-season would find the 76ers off-loading the young center for the best offer available. But his performance was such that he has already joined the company of just a few NBA stars who have played before him. With his offense already showing the potential, would it be wise to entertain offers to trade him? So far, the Philadelphia 76ers have not consented, nor do I expect that they will. Next year, the player who shows up on the roster will be familiar with the routine, the team, and the roster. Considering he ended this season at such a high plateau, his second season could have the potential to show him as an NBA player whose career trajectory places him into the All Star category. But we’ve already had that discussion, so let’s return to our optimistic scenario.
Next: Embiid's Upside
Embiid’s upside
Joel Embiid’s arrival to the team has taken two years. Combined with his injury ending season with Kansas, he’s already been over two years away form the game of basketball. Anyone who steps away from anything for two years will have plenty of rust to knock off, and we would be foolish to expect JoJo to arrive to the Sixers roster in flawless fashion. But before we try to stomp two feet on the ground, we should focus on what the potential of Joel Embiid truly is.
Per Daniel Meyers, creator of basketball’s Box Plus Minus (BPM) index, Joel Embiid entered the NBA two years ago as the third highest prospect in measurable history. Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelican big man (center/power forward) placed highest in the index with 18.7. Karl Anthony Towns, last years top drafted player, arrives in second with a BPM index of 17.3. Joel Embiid places third on that list with 14.9.
What that measures is a relative comparison of a ” player’s box score information and the team’s overall performance to estimate a player’s performance relative to league average. BPM is a per-100-possession stat, the same scale as Adjusted Plus/Minus: 0.0 is league average, +5 means the player is 5 points better than an average player over 100 possessions (which is about All-NBA level), -2 is replacement level, and -5 is really bad.”
In relative terms, Joel Embiid is very very good in comparative terms to other NBA players. Amplifying this measurement is the limited amount of formal coaching and organized team play the young man has experienced. But don’t equate lack of experience to a young man without basketball knowledge, instincts, or aptitude. From the official NBA prospect analysis of the NBA, the glaring weaknesses of Joel were states as: Will back issues persist? Has to get bigger and stronger. And finally inexperienced. So we know that Joel Embiid is now 7’2″ and in much better shape to play basketball. We know that despite being rehabbing for two years, he has been immersed in an NBA basketball program, spoken with NBA caliber talent, watched Sixers games, spoken with coaches. So he may not be more experienced in relative terms, but he’s certainly had time to enhance his basketball IQ and perspective.
ALSO ON SIXER SENSE: Reports: Joel Embiid Further Along Than We Thought
But the fun begins when you look at his strengths. Length, mobility, explosive, high IQ, good rebounder and great shot blocker. Inside and outside scoring potential. Joel Embiid was a good chance to have ended up the top rated prospect in the 2014 NBA draft, but his injuries scared off teams until the Philadelphia 76ers picked him. His college basketball stats were good: 11.2 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 1.4 apg, 0.9 spg, 2.6 bpg, 2.4 tpg, 23.1 mpg, .626 FG, .200 3PT, .685 FT . If you could combine the talents of Nerlens Noel into one player, you will most closely end up with Joel Embiid. Defensively, he will perform. He’s got the size and the intelligence to create havoc in the vicinity of the basket. That will not be a problem. Offensively, how he performs in the NBA is still in question. But that question weighs more heavily on the team built around him than his own abilities.
Here is the latest and greatest video of the young Cameroon showing his stuff.
Next: Similar to Hakeem Olajuwon
Similar to Hakeem Olajuwon
In his NBA analysis, the writer projects Joel Embiid as a player similar to Hakeem Olajuwon. If that analysis holds true, then a good optimistic view would be to follow the first year of the renowned Houston center. But the problem with projecting a player in the shadow of an NBA great is that if the prospect has a bad game or even stretch, the nay-sayers will be quick to discount it. But knowing that Embiid is young, has been away from the game for a long period of time, and is joining the roster of the worst NBA team record wise this season, let’s run with it.
Hakeem Olajuwon joined center Ralph Sampson to become an incredibly dominant pair at the post. Much like the Sixers dilemma, those Houston Rockets moved previous 7’4″ center Ralph Sampson to power forward to make room for the 7’0″ Olajuwon. In that first season, Olajuwon proved he was special – scoring 20.9 points per game, hauling in 12 rebounds per game, blocking 2.7 shots and stealing 1.2 times per game. His partner Sampson would score 22.1 points per game alongside Hakeem. Much of the success of Olajuwon was the ability of Sampson to move to the four spot. It was Sampson’s ability to play heads-up at the four that gave Olajuwon the opportunity to excel for the Rockets.
If Joel Embiid is to enjoy an Olajuwon-like career, either Jahlil Okafor or Nerlens Noel will need to slide to the power forward position and divert some of the stress from the new rookie. But that need to divert won’t last long. It would have been much better for Joel Embiid to have arrived first, and then slid to the four spot to make room for Jahlil Okafor. But the order has reversed, and that places all the more pressure on already taxed head coach Brett Brown to place his young skyscrapers at the proper address.
Based on Sampson’s success at the four, I’m wagering that Brown will give the intelligent basketball player a look at power forward. If he succeeds there, he will likely pair with Jahlil Okafor and the pair will generate in the low 40 points per game between them. With Embiid kicking in the rim protection, Okafor can use his big body to pull in rebounds on both ends. But if the team settles in on Embiid at the five, then the more likely pairing would be Nerlens Noel at the four. While this would place the pair in the mid 30’s to low 40’s scoring, the defense would be that much better, with both feeding off one another and becoming extremely difficult to work inside.
Next: Pieces Needed to Augment Joel Embiid
Pieces Needed to Augment Joel Embiid
This is the challenge upon the Philadelphia 76ers front office. Building a team around Joel Embiid which will excel in the type game he will bring. Ideally, the team should have three characteristics: superior ball movement and handling; excellent perimeter offense and defense, a back court which can score when needed, but who will dish the ball to the open man at the post.
If the Sixers do that, they will be a much improved team next season.
With the arrival of fellow “Sixer at large” Dario Saric, the Philadelphia 76ers will take a huge step towards improving their ball movement. Saric brings a strong passing game, and his presence will give the Sixers the ability to get the ball to Embiid from virtually any point on the basketball court. If the Philadelphia 76ers are able to draft Ben Simmons, that will solidify the team for the foreseeable future.
The Sixers perimeter defense is aimless so far. That won’t improve next season as the attention of head coach Brett Brown will be more focused than ever before on getting the most out of his players and his rookies in the front court. To take the pressure off Brown, and boost the progress of the team’s young wings, the Sixers would be well served to dust off their wallets and pay a huge dollar short duration contract to one of the NBA premier wings who will be testing free agency this off-season. Just a two or three year deal would be sufficient to give the team a beachhead for their own young talent to develop.
The last element, a back court which can score but will dish the ball is likely found in the NBA draft. The Philadelphia 76ers have a minimum of three first round draft picks this season, and if they fail to end up picking in the top two spots, they should still be able to find a contributor in the back court who can start next season. Since Embiid will likely draw so much attention towards the basket, his teammates should have plenty of opportunities to score if they take open high percentage shots. With good scouting, the Sixers will have those personnel on the roster from the first game of next season.
The 2016-2017 season will not be playoffs for the Philadelphia 76ers, but it will not be a team struggling to find any wins either. With a healthy Joel Embiid, the Philadelphia 76ers should improve on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. As new faces fill in the gaps of the lineup around him, the Sixers will find something they have not had for the past three seasons: a stable roster. From that point going forward, it will be fewer experiments, fewer swaps, and as a result, fewer mistakes. The one thing the Philadelphia 76ers have not had in a very long time is consistency. Joel Embiid could bring that to the team next season. With that, wins will arrive alongside.