It takes three stars to make a championship NBA team. Of the roster of the Philadelphia 76ers, who could emerge as an NBA star?
Star light, star bright,
First star I see tonight,
I wish I may, I wish I might,
Have this wish I wish tonight.
A Star is Born. In the constantly evolving world of the modern NBA, there is a cycle of stars emerging and stars fading. There is the call to glory that keeps basketball alive in the hearts of young men across this great nation.
The dream of hoisting an NBA championship.
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But getting there is not easy. The expectation of an NBA prospect to achieve the standard bearing leadership at their position is awfully difficult to see early in a players career. Don’t believe me? Then take the challenge of trying to distinguish among current Philadelphia 76ers’ rookie seasons with those of some NBA greats.
It’s easier said than done.
Still, I trust you. After all, you are the fans of the Philadelphia 76ers, a fan base that understood that winning games today is less significant than getting elite players to win championships tomorrow. We have a problem now. President Sam Hinkie was the architect, and it was his keen perception that placed so many young talented hopefuls on this team.
You were patient when the remaining fans of the NBA were impatient. You were “hold” when the remaining basketball world was “SELL!”. Where did you land with your patience?
Next: Judging the Roster
Judging the Roster
So it falls to you to check this roster as it stands now, and determine who if any might achieve the type of play to warrant starting on a championship roster. But to make it even more difficult, lets add some other options.
I will name the prospect, and place the three categories of a championship team. If you have forgotten what those categories are, let’s review:
Platinum player – upper 96th percentile of the NBA in his position
Gold player – upper 90th percentile of the NBA in his position
Silver player – upper 79th percentile of the NBA in his position.
Now keep in mind that you may be tempted to believe that the team has more than one potential platinum player on this roster. But if that is the case, it will be difficult to keep both players on the roster due to the salary cap limitation, unless the team is lucky.
We’ll discuss the players genetic stats, strengths, weaknesses, fit to team scheme, and then give you what it would take for that player to match up at each tier.
Then it will be onto the next player. Ready? Let’s get started:
Next: Player One: Simmons
Ben Simmons
Height: 6-foot-10
Weight: 240 Pounds
Wingspan: 7-foot-0
Strengths: He’s good at far too many basketball skills. With his size and athleticism, he can play virtually any position on a basketball lineup. That ability to plug and play will give the 76ers a tremendous advantage as Simmons matures.
Weaknesses: The “jack-of-all-trades-master-of-none” applies to the rookie’s debut. He has so many skill-sets, but he has so many things he’s good at that he has not focused on any one thing to be incredibly great at.
Fit to Team Scheme: Defines the Pace Space Pass mantra of head coach Brett Brown’s scheme. He embodies all that Brown wants to do with the team, a perfect fit of skillsets to scheme design. Simmons brings a quickly run attack with an ability to diagnose and exploit weaknesses he sees in the defense. His size speed and versatility make him a nightmare for one on one matchups.
Platinum Tier Requirement: Ultimately, he runs the teams offense as a pseudo-point-guard. To achieve the best at this position, he will need to generate 12 assists per game, 28 points per game, and 7.0 rebounds per game.
Gold Tier Requirement: The gold tier is the top 10 percent in the NBA, which means he can be one of the top three players in the position. To land at this tier, he will need to generate 10.0 assists per game, as well as 23 points per game, and just 5.0 rebounds per game.
Silver Tier Requirement: Now were are in the top 21 percent of the position, and at this level he needs to be very good. To do this, he needs to generate 8.0 assists per game, as well as 17.0 points per game, and 4.5 rebounds per game.
Likely tier projection: Platinum. Simmons is young and maturing, but his trajectory could very well place him at the silver tier in his rookie season. Rebounding and assists will come easily. Over time, his scoring per game will elevate him as one of premier players in the NBA. In three years, he could be scoring over 20 points, pulling down 10.0 rebounds, and handing out 10 assists. He’s a keeper.
Next: Player One: Saric
Dario Saric
Height: 6-foot-10
Weight: 245
Wingspan: 6-foot-10
Strengths: Strong physical forward who can play the post, but also set up at the perimeter. He’s versatile, and has very similar skill-sets to Simmons. He can dish the ball, pass coast to coast, and run a physical game. While he may not have Simmons’ handles, he has a far more sophisticated shot arsenal. He has strong mentality, and can rise to key moments in a basketball game.
Weaknesses: Not quite the same burst speed as Simmons, and that will limit him somewhat in his defensive role. He may have difficulty defending smaller faster players. In post defense he can be overmatched at times by bigger stronger players.
Fit to Team Scheme: Another excellent fit. He’s another player whose style blends incredibly well to the Pace Space Pass mantra of the team. His acumen of transition fast-break passing will generate excellent opportunities for free layups and two-on-one fast breaks. He can set up at the perimeter or take the charge to the basket for the alley oop. He can even reset by passing out of double teams to the open man.
Platinum Tier Requirement: To play atop the NBA at power forward is a tall order. The best end up in the neighborhood of 24 points per game, 10 rebounds per game, and 2.0 blocks per game.
Gold Tier Requirement: If he ends up in the top 10% of the league, the numbers drop substantially. He can achieve gold tier if he scores 17 points per game, hauls in 9 rebounds per game, and blocks 1.5 shots per game.
Silver Tier Requirement: At th3 silver level, he is just at the top 21% of the league, and that gives another drop in the statistics. At this level, scoring falls to 16 points per game, rebounds at 8 per game, and blocks at 1.3 per game.
Likely tier projection: Gold. He should be able to achieve the gold tier in three years. He is leaving the Euroleague averaging 22 minutes per game, 11.7 points, 5.8 rebounds, and .5 blocks per game. Per 36 minutes, those number jumps to 18.8 points per game, 9.2 rebounds, and .7 blocks.
There will be a period of transition, but Saric has demonstrated steady improvement. His Olympics performance demonstrates just how valuable he can be to this team.B
Next: Player One: Embiid
Joel Embiid
Height: 7-foot-2
Weight: 275
Wingspan: 7-foot-5.75
Strengths: Strong physical center who has remarkable athleticism, and a nearly photographic memory. Once he sees a move or play, he can replicate it with little practice. He’s had two years to develop a shot arsenal in the training gym. Now all that physicality and athleticism gets a chance to debut for the NBA.
Weaknesses: He’s coming off a two year rehab of his foot, and the depth of his basketball training was shallow prior to the injury. He is a very competitive athlete who may try to do too much as he enters the NBA. Meting out his playing minutes and alternating his appearances will contribute to getting real time coaching feedback which will be essential to develop his full range of NBA talent.
Fit to Team Scheme: In theory, he’s another nearly perfect fit. Due to his height and athleticism, his post game should rival that of teammate Jahlil Okafor. But where Okafor can get stuck on double teams, Embiid will be able to pass out of traffic. His strength will be shooting near the basket, but he can shoot from range as well. That will give Brown plenty of options for the offense to mask plays with player movement.
Platinum Tier Requirement: To achieve platinum tier for an NBA center, Embiid will need to score 25.0 points per game, pull down 14 rebounds per game, and block 2.5 shots per game. Part of the struggle in gauging Embiid’s progress is understanding that while he was drafted a year earlier than Karl-Anthony Towns, he will debut a year after the young center from the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Gold Tier Requirement: The top 10% of the NBA tier would require Joel Embiid to score 18.5 points per game, as well as pull down 11.5 rebounds per game, and block 2.25 shots per game.
Silver Tier Requirement: The top 21% of the NBA tier would need Embiid to contribute 16.0 points per game, as well as pull down 11.0 rebounds per game, and block 1.9 shots per game.
Likely tier projection: Platinum.. Perhaps optimistically, I expect that the careers of Towns and Embiid to take similar tracks, albeit Embiid will be a year behind Towns. Embiid will struggle to achieve 30 minutes per game average this season. However, I expect his “per 36” to come in at 20.6 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks this year.
Next: Player One: Luwawu
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot
Height: 6-foot-7
Weight: 205
Wingspan: 6-foot-11
Strengths: Pesky wing who can play either small forward or shooting guard. While he can set a slow and deliberate pace, he possesses a quick burst which can deceive. As mobile without as with ball, completely capable of creating his own shots. Fearless. Will charge the basket if he sees an opening, often splitting defenders in the attempt.
Weaknesses: Takes a lot of chances. Needs to mature, develop physically. Needs to optimize his shot selection, set up defenders with inside moves to later pop out for open perimeter shots.
Fit to Team Scheme: Very strong fit. He is the 3-and-D two way player Brett Brown has coveted, and he is both fearless and persistent on defense. He is quick, can set up at the perimeter, and can pass the ball on if he is covered well.
Platinum Tier Requirement: To achieve platinum, he would need to score 29 points per game, as well as pilfer 1.9 steals per game, and offer up 6.5 assists per game.
Gold Tier Requirement: In order to land in the gold tier, he would need to score 22 points per game, as well as help himself to 1.7 steals, and dish out 4.8 assists per game
Silver Tier Requirement: The silver tier for his position requires he maintains the upper 21 percent of his position, which would require him to score 20.5 points per game, as well as snatch 1.55 steals, and dish out 4.4 assists per game.
Likely tier projection: Silver. Luwawu will likely be a strong contributor and fall short of even the Silver tier, but if he has a strong rookie season, his athleticism could take him very far on the Philadelphia 76ers.
Next: Player One: Okafor
Jahlil Okafor
Height: 6-foot-11
Weight: 275
Wingspan: 7-foot-5
Strengths: Strong post presence who can take over the game offensively. His ability to generate points despite double and triple teaming is a throw back to the back-to-the-basket days of yesteryear. He already is averaging 21.0 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks per 36 minutes of play.
Weaknesses: As much as he does very well, it’s easy to overlook the challenges of his rookie season, and playing merely 53 games. To achieve his full potential, he will need to become a bigger presence defensively near the basket. His strong post games masks the limits to other aspects of his game.
Fit to Team Scheme: He needs the scheme to bend towards his strengths. Last season, the 76ers simply hadn’t enough perimeter help to force the defense out of the paint. That should change going forward.
Platinum Tier Requirement: As with Joel Embiid, to achieve platinum tier for an NBA center, Okafor will need to score 25.0 points per game, as well as pull down 14 rebounds per game, and block 2.5 shots per game. While the offense could certainly happen, defensively that may be somewhat of a challenge
Gold Tier Requirement: The top 10% of the NBA tier would require Jahlil Okafor to score 18.5 points per game, as well as 11.5 rebounds per game, and block 2.25 shots per game. Offensively, he’s there.
Silver Tier Requirement: The top 21% of the NBA tier would need Embiid to contribute 16.0 points per game, as well as 11.0 rebounds per game, and block 1.9 shots per game.
Likely tier projection: Gold. While he will fall short of blocks per game, his offense could land in the mid 20’s this year, and perhaps even to 30 points per game next season. Even though he is not the quickest nor best passer, he would benefit tremendously from a well run Pace Space Pass offense.
Next: Player One: Noel
Nerlens Noel
Height: 6-foot-11
Weight: 228
Wingspan: 7-foot-4
Strengths: Strong rim protecting center who can snuff the opponent’s offense from driving to the rim. He is one of the few NBA players to have a strong defensive presence in both blocks (1.8 per 36) and steals (2.2 per 36). He is a versatile and athletic center/power forward who can disrupt passing lanes. While limited offensively, he can
Weaknesses: He relies upon scheme to create his shots, frequently finding the most success at dunking well timed alley-oops. He is not particularly skilled at taking the ball to the hoop in traffic. His play eroded somewhat in an effort to switch to power forward, forcing the team to reverse course and try to cross-train Jahlil Okafor at the four.
Fit to Team Scheme: Defensively very versatile and well suited. Offensively, he is dependent upon the point to time passes to allow him to use his jumping ability to dunk.
Platinum Tier Requirement: As Embiid and Okafor before him, to achieve platinum tier for an NBA center, Noel will need to score 25.0 points per game, as well as pull down 14 rebounds per game, and block 2.5 shots per game. Right now, he’s most on track for the rebounds and blocked shots. Offensively, he will struggle to climb out of the teens.
Gold Tier Requirement: The top 10% of the NBA tier would require Nerlens Noel to score 18.5 points per game, as well as 11.5 rebounds per game, and block 2.25 shots per game.
Silver Tier Requirement: The top 21% of the NBA tier would need Noel to contribute 16.0 points per game, as well as 11.0 rebounds per game, and block 1.9 shots per game.
Likely tier projection: Gold. While he will never be an offensive juggernaut, the expansion of the offensive playbook will give him greater mobility in proximity to the basket. He merely needs to make a few more shots per game to achieve 18 points. Full time at center and he can meet both rebound and blocks this year.
Next: Player One: McConnell
T.J. McConnell
Height: 6-foot-2
Weight: 200
Wingspan: 6-foot-0
Strengths: Scrappy point guard who is a sponge. Undrafted, he assumed a significant role as point guard for the Philadelphia 76er last year. He performed very well for a young man on the “on-the-job-training” track. He was one of the top rookies in assists, and his 47 percent shooting accuracy demonstrated taking quality shots.
Weaknesses: Young and inexperienced. He was forced to carry the team at the most challenging position as an undrafted rookie. McConnell will benefit greatly from coming off the bench behind Sergio Rodriguez and Ben Simmons. He brings high energy and passion to his lineup, but he will need to improve on his reads.
Fit to Team Scheme: McConnell may not be as blessed dimensionally, but his fire is a welcome addition to the team that needs more passion. It will be interesting to see how he resonates with Gerald Henderson, another very passionate player.
Platinum Tier Requirement: Ultimately, the point guard runs the team’s offense. To achieve the best at this position, he will need to generate 12 assists per game, as well as score 28 points per game, and 7.0 rebounds per game.
Gold Tier Requirement: The gold tier is the top 10 percent in the NBA, which requires that he be one of the top three players in the position. To land at this tier, he will need to generate 10.0 assists per game, as well as 23 points per game, and just 5.0 rebounds per game.
Silver Tier Requirement: Now were are in the top 21 percent of the position, and at this level he needs to be very good. To do this, he needs to generate 8.0 assists per game, as well as 17.0 points per game, and 4.5 rebounds per game.
Likely tier projection: Silver. Believe it or not, per 36 minutes of play, McConnell is already generating 8.2 assists and 5.6 rebounds. He simply needs to learn to trust himself to shoot more. Averaging 11.1 points per 36, he simply needs to take six more shots (per 36 mins) to achieve Silver. If he gets enough playing time this year, he could accomplish that by the end of the season.
Next: Player One: Covington
Robert Covington
Height: 6-foot-9
Weight: 215
Wingspan: 7-foot-2
Strengths: Strong physical forward who can play both sides of the ball, and when hot handed, can drop 30 points. One of the team’s best defenders. He can play as high as the power forward position, while dropping all the way down to the shooting guard role.
Weaknesses: While he can make his own shot, Covington needs a clean look to score consistently. If double-teamed or challenged on his shot, does not often pass out to the open shooter. Sporadic scorer.
Fit to Team Scheme: One of the biggest threats at the perimeter. He was the focus of Brown last season, as the coach worked to improve Covington on defense. Even though he struggled at times offensively, he maintained his defensive composure all season long.
Platinum Tier Requirement: To achieve platinum, he would need to score 29 points per game, as well as pilfer 1.9 steals per game, and offer up 6.5 assists per game.
Gold Tier Requirement: In order to land in the gold tier, he would need to score 22 points per game, as well as help himself to 1.7 steals, and dish out 4.8 assists per game
Silver Tier Requirement: The silver tier for his position requires he maintains the upper 21 percent of his position, as well as require him to score 20.5 points per game, as well as snatch 1.55 steals, and dish out 4.4 assists per game.
Likely tier projection: Gold Covington may never generate enough assists for any tier, but offensively, he has the skill set to score in the mid to upper 20’s, steal 2.5, and bring down 9 rebounds per game.
Next: Grant
Jerami Grant
Height: 6-foot-8
Weight: 210
Wingspan: 7-foot-2.5
Strengths: Strong forward whose forte is defense. However, he closed out the month of April 2016 by averaging nearly 15 points per game.
Weaknesses: No threat from the perimeter, as his career average from long-range falls just shy of 28 percent. He compensates by a strong mid to short range shooting accuracy.
Fit to Team Scheme: He plays hard and fast. He will need to develop a three-point shot, but he moves up and down the court very well.
Platinum Tier Requirement: To achieve platinum, he would need to score 29 points per game, as well as pilfer 1.9 steals per game, and offer up 6.5 assists per game.
Gold Tier Requirement: In order to land in the gold tier, he would need to score 22 points per game, help himself to 1.7 steals, and dish out 4.8 assists per game
Silver Tier Requirement: The silver tier for his position requires he maintains the upper 21 percent of his position, as well as require him to score 20.5 points per game, snatch 1.55 steals, and dish out 4.4 assists per game.
Likely tier projection: Silver at best. Grant will likely not elevate his game in assists, steals or scoring to meet the top 21 percent threshold. However, he will do very well in blocks per game, will provide defense of the wings, and can neutralize an opponents top scorer on most nights.|
Next: The Impact Of Ben Simmons
So what do you think? Are there potential stars on this team? Has the team built a potential winner, or must we hope for one or more of the trio to arrive in next year’s draft?