This week we have been projecting expectations for the Philadelphia 76ers statistically. Today we tackle defense, specifically steals and blocks.
Steals and blocks are only aspects of defense, as evidenced by the Philadelphia 76ers‘ opponents scoring 108 points per game. But it does present somewhat of a building block of a defensive identity.
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So given the changes to the team and the addition of some better talent on the perimeter, what can we expect next year?
I’ve once again used a fairly simple projection model. I took each players estimated minutes per game, multiplied by their steals and blocks per minutes played number.
Steals
In 2016-17 the Philadelphia 76ers averaged an impressive 8.4 steals per game. This may surprise you, but the Philadelphia 76ers ranked third in the entire NBA in steals per game last season. Widely considered a fairly poor defensive team, having such a high steal rate is somewhat counterintuitive but they were fairly good at forcing turnovers.
| Player | Avg Mins | STL/36 | EST STL |
| Markelle Fultz | 25 | 1.6 | 1.11 |
| JJ Redick | 28 | 0.9 | 0.70 |
| Robert Covington | 32 | 2.2 | 1.96 |
| Ben Simmons | 28 | 2.2 | 1.71 |
| Joel Embiid | 28 | 1.2 | 0.93 |
| Jerryd Bayless | 23 | 1.1 | 0.70 |
| Justin Anderson | 10 | 0.9 | 0.25 |
| Dario Saric | 16 | 1 | 0.44 |
| Richaun Holmes | 15 | 1.3 | 0.54 |
| McConnell | 8 | 2.3 | 0.51 |
| Stauskas | 6 | 0.7 | 0.12 |
| Luwawu | 12 | 1 | 0.33 |
| Amir Johnson | 9 | 1.1 | 0.28 |
| 9.59 |
It should not come as a surprise that Robert Covington and Ben Simmons are projected to lead the team in steals. Both players will be playing heavily in the passing lanes and switching on defense. What you can clearly see is that Simmons is likely to be a huge upgrade in this area to Dario Saric.
Ben Simmons averaged more than double the steal rate of Dario Saric. Other upgrades are Jerryd Bayless over Nik Stauskas. Somewhat surprising given his reputation for defense is Justin Anderson who averaged less than one steal per 36 minutes.
Overall with this projection the team would match the Golden State Warriors who lead the league in steals per game.
Related Story: Will Ben Simmons improve the teams rebounding?
Blocks
When it comes to blocks, the team similarly ranked in the top 10 in the entire NBA. At 5.1 blocks per game they ranked seventh.
| Player | Avg Mins | BLK/36 | EST BLK |
| Markelle Fultz | 25 | 1.2 | 0.83 |
| JJ Redick | 28 | 0.2 | 0.16 |
| Robert Covington | 32 | 1.2 | 1.07 |
| Ben Simmons | 28 | 0.8 | 0.62 |
| Joel Embiid | 28 | 3.5 | 2.72 |
| Jerryd Bayless | 23 | 1.7 | 1.09 |
| Justin Anderson | 10 | 0.5 | 0.14 |
| Dario Saric | 16 | 0.5 | 0.22 |
| Richaun Holmes | 15 | 1.7 | 0.71 |
| McConnell | 8 | 0.2 | 0.04 |
| Stauskas | 6 | 0.5 | 0.08 |
| Luwawu | 12 | 0.3 | 0.10 |
| Amir Johnson | 9 | 1.4 | 0.35 |
| 8.13 |
This projection must be taken somewhat with a grain of salt. While the math is there, 8.1 blocks per game would lead the league by 1.4 blocks per game. I do think that a healthy Embiid with Richaun Holmes and Amir Johnson will vastly improve their rim defense.
The biggest change perhaps is the upgrade of Markelle Fultz and Ben Simmons for TJ McConnell and Dario Saric. TJ and Dario combined for just .5 blocks per game last season. This projection estimates that Fultz and Simmons could add 1.45. That alone adds nearly one block per game to the teams bottom line.
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Good Bones
The bones of a good defense exist on this team. The Philadelphia 76ers will just need to combine those factors into a cohesive set of integrated parts.
I cannot stress enough how impactful elite and consistent rim protection can be for a team’s overall defense. When Embiid was on the floor last season the Philadelphia 76ers were the best defense in the league. When he was sidelined opposing teams attacked the rim relentlessly.
Aside from limiting turnovers and getting back in transition, rim protection is perhaps the most important way to anchor an elite defense.
Even without great on ball defenders on the perimeter, an elite rim protector who can hedge and recover can clean up many mistakes and also allow perimeter defenders to gamble for steals more often.
This gambling for steals leads to easy offense, which can limit turnovers which can help the defense. It’s all a positive of negative feedback loop cycle that can truly turn the tide of games and seasons.